The final part of Foundations. If you’re new, start from the beginning: What Is a Prediction Market? → Prediction Markets vs Betting → How to Read Prediction Market Prices → Where the Costs Hide →…
In May, Polymarket ran a market with a clean question: will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by May 31? The company’s own SEC filing later confirmed a sale of 32 BTC between May 26 and 31,…
“Polymarket is banned in the US.” Outdated. “Polymarket is legal in the US.” Incomplete. Both sentences are wrong because they assume one Polymarket exists. Since December 2025, there are two. The international exchange is the…
There isn’t one best prediction market. The right one depends on your situation. Where you live, how you feel about crypto, and what you want to trade can change the answer completely. So here’s the…
Here’s a puzzle that catches almost everyone. You buy a share at 30¢. Later you sell it, and the price on screen still reads 30¢. You’d expect to break even. Instead you’re down. Nothing moved,…
This World Cup, FIFA tried something new: it named its first ever official prediction market partner. It wasn’t Polymarket or Kalshi. It was ADI Predictstreet, a Gibraltar-licensed platform most traders had never heard of, licensed…
In June 2026, Polymarket ran a market on a question that sounded simple: would MicroStrategy, the company that’s spent years hoarding Bitcoin, sell any of it before May 31? The company’s own SEC filing said…
A prediction market shows you a single number, say $0.65. Almost everything you need is packed into it if you know how to unpack it. Most people don’t, and it quietly costs them money. By…
It’s a fair guess. Both put money on an uncertain outcome, and both pay out if you’re right. From a distance, prediction markets versus betting looks like a distinction without a difference, two cousins wearing…
Picture you and a friend arguing about whether a team wins the championship. One says yes and puts down $100. The other says no and matches it. Winner takes all. A prediction market is that…
