How to Create a Polymarket Account
There are several ways to sign up, and nobody explains what choosing between them means for your money. Any of them takes about a minute. The part worth slowing down for is what you’re agreeing…
Anna
How Much to Bet: Why Being Right Isn’t Enough
Most people who lose money on prediction markets were not wrong about the world. They were wrong about size. That’s the part nobody covers, because it doesn’t sell. Reading prices is interesting. Spotting a mispriced…
Where the Odds Come From: Liquidity and Market Makers
Every price on your screen was put there by someone who expects to get paid for putting it there. That sounds cynical. It’s just how the plumbing works, and knowing whose money is standing behind…
Prediction Market Leverage: The Feature Beginners Should Ignore
Update, 5 September 2026. Since this was published, leverage stopped being a forecast and became a product. Kalshi’s perps went live in June with per-asset caps under 6x, and Polymarket launched its own on 4…
Judge the Floor, Not the Peak: What Prediction Market Volume Really Tells You
Every few weeks a headline says prediction markets just hit a record. The last one was big. Combined monthly volume across the major platforms reached roughly $45 billion in June 2026, and a few outlets…
Kalshi Review (2026): What to Actually Know Before You Trade
If Kalshi took the road Polymarket didn’t. It went and got a license, and it now runs as a US exchange overseen by the same federal body that watches commodity futures, open to members across…
Polymarket Review (2026): What to Actually Know Before You Trade
Polymarket is the biggest prediction market by volume and the one whose odds get quoted back at you in news stories. It’s also the platform most reviews now describe inaccurately, because three things about it…
The Map Is the Product: Where Prediction Markets Are Legal Now
Ask me whether prediction markets are legal and I have to ask you a question back: where are you standing? That used to be a throwaway answer. In 2026 it’s the whole answer. The same…
Limit Orders and the Order Book: How to Stop Paying the Spread
In the last note, I promised an escape hatch. Crossing the spread — buying at the ask, selling at the bid — is a cost most beginners pay without noticing. There’s a way to sidestep…
When Insiders Show Up: Two Cases That Tested Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are valuable because informed people participate. That’s the whole point: prices mean something because someone, somewhere, knows more than the crowd and puts money on it. But two recent cases showed where that…