Yes, but about 84% of people don’t. That number comes from an on-chain study of 2.5 million Polymarket wallets published in April 2026. Not a survey, not a guess: every address that ever traded, read…
Every time you buy Yes, someone sells it to you. The price you click is another person’s opposite opinion, wearing a number. So the question that decides whether you make money isn’t “am I right…
Most people who lose money on prediction markets were not wrong about the world. They were wrong about size. That’s the part nobody covers, because it doesn’t sell. Reading prices is interesting. Spotting a mispriced…
Every price on your screen was put there by someone who expects to get paid for putting it there. That sounds cynical. It’s just how the plumbing works, and knowing whose money is standing behind…
In the last note, I promised an escape hatch. Crossing the spread — buying at the ask, selling at the bid — is a cost most beginners pay without noticing. There’s a way to sidestep…
In June 2026, Polymarket ran a market on a question that sounded simple: would MicroStrategy, the company that’s spent years hoarding Bitcoin, sell any of it before May 31? The company’s own SEC filing said…
