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Analysis

analysis — real markets, tracked as they happen
The market’s decisions, documented in real time
Disputes, launches, and industry moments — covered while they’re still unresolved. Not a recap after the fact.
every claim is checked against primary sources before it goes up
  • Kalshi vs Polymarket Perps: Why the Regulated One Gives You Less Leverage

    Kalshi vs Polymarket Perps: Why the Regulated One Gives You Less Leverage

    If you’re comparing Kalshi vs Polymarket perps, one number does most of the work. Kalshi caps Bitcoin perpetuals at around 5.8x. Polymarket, which launched its own perps on September 4, goes to 20x. Same product category, same month, roughly a fourfold gap in what you’re allowed to borrow. That gap isn’t a difference in temperament.…

  • Prediction Market Leverage: The Feature Beginners Should Ignore

    Prediction Market Leverage: The Feature Beginners Should Ignore

    Update, 5 September 2026. Since this was published, leverage stopped being a forecast and became a product. Kalshi’s perps went live in June with per-asset caps under 6x, and Polymarket launched its own on 4 September at up to 20x across 67 markets. One thing here I got wrong: I expected regulators to recoil, and…

  • The Map Is the Product: Where Prediction Markets Are Legal Now

    The Map Is the Product: Where Prediction Markets Are Legal Now

    Ask me whether prediction markets are legal and I have to ask you a question back: where are you standing? That used to be a throwaway answer. In 2026 it’s the whole answer. The same platform, offering the same contract on the same event, can be perfectly legal on one side of a state line…

  • When Insiders Show Up: Two Cases That Tested Prediction Markets

    When Insiders Show Up: Two Cases That Tested Prediction Markets

    Prediction markets are valuable because informed people participate. That’s the whole point: prices mean something because someone, somewhere, knows more than the crowd and puts money on it. But two recent cases showed where that logic starts to break — when “informed” turns into “has access nobody else could ever have.” informed ≠ has access…

  • The $60M Market That Resolved Against a Documented Fact Is Headed to Court

    The $60M Market That Resolved Against a Documented Fact Is Headed to Court

    In May, Polymarket ran a market with a clean question: will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by May 31? The company’s own SEC filing later confirmed a sale of 32 BTC between May 26 and 31, inside the window. The market resolved No. Over $60 million had traded on it. The dispute was never about whether…

  • There Are Two Polymarkets Now, and It Matters Which One You Mean

    There Are Two Polymarkets Now, and It Matters Which One You Mean

    “Polymarket is banned in the US.” Outdated. “Polymarket is legal in the US.” Incomplete. Both sentences are wrong because they assume one Polymarket exists. Since December 2025, there are two. The international exchange is the famous one: crypto-based, USDC deposits, the widest market list in the industry, and geoblocked for US residents under a 2022…

  • The Official FIFA Partner Nobody Traded On

    The Official FIFA Partner Nobody Traded On

    This World Cup, FIFA tried something new: it named its first ever official prediction market partner. It wasn’t Polymarket or Kalshi. It was ADI Predictstreet, a Gibraltar-licensed platform most traders had never heard of, licensed only days before the announcement. Then the group stage actually happened. Some matches drew under $100 in total trades on…